Introduction : connecting the seat of the intellect to the seat of the pants
Ch. 1. The flaw of averages
Ch. 2. The fall of the algebraic curtain and rise of the flaw of averages
Ch. 3. Mitigating the flaw of averages
Ch. 4. The Wright brothers versus the wrong brothers
Ch. 5. The most important instrument in the cockpit
Pt. 2. Five basic MINDles for uncertainty
Ch. 6. MINDles are to MINDs what HANDles are to HANDs
Ch. 7. Mindle 1: uncertainty versus risk
Ch. 8. Mindle 2 : an uncertain number is a shape
Ch. 9. Mindle 3 : combinations of uncertain numbers
Ch. 10. I come to bury SIGMA, not to praise it
Ch. 11. Mindle 4 : Terri Dial and the drunk in the road
Ch. 12. Who was Jensen and why wasn't he equal?
Ch. 13. Mindle 5 : interrelated uncertainties
Pt. 3. Decisions and information
Ch. 15. The value of information
Pt. 4. The seven deadly sins of averaging
Ch. 16. The seven deadly sins of averaging
Ch. 17. The flaw of extremes
Ch. 18. Simpson's paradox
Ch. 19. The Scholtes revenue fallacy
Ch. 20. Taking credit for chance occurrences
Pt. 5. The flaw of averages in finance
Ch. 21. Your retirement portfolio
Ch. 22. The birth of portfolio theory : the age of covariance
Ch. 23. When Harry met Bill(y)
Ch. 24. Mindles for the financial planning client
Ch. 25. Options : profiting from uncertainty
Ch. 26. When Fischer and Myron met Bob : option theory
Ch. 27. Prices, probabilities, and predictions
Ch. 28. Holistic versus hole-istic
Ch. 29. Real portfolios at Shell
Ch. 31. Some gratuitous inflammatory remarks on the accounting industry
Pt. 7. The flaw of averages in supply chains
Ch. 32. The DNA of supply chains
Ch. 33. A supply chain of DNA
Ch. 34. Cawlfield's principle
Pt. 8. The flaw of averages and some hot button issues
Ch. 35. The statistical research group of World War II
Ch. 36. Probability and the War on Terror
Ch. 37. The flaw of averages and climate change
Ch. 38. The flaw of averages in health care
Ch. 39. Sex and the central limit theorem
Pt. 9. Toward a cure for the flaw of averages
Ch. 40. The end of statistics as you were taught it
Ch. 42. Interactive simulation : a new lightbulb
Ch. 43. Scenario libraries : the power grid
Ch. 44. The fundamental identity of SLURP algebra
Ch. 45. Putting it into practice
Ch. 46. The CPO : managing probability management
Ch. 47. A posthumous visit by my father.
